A few weeks ago, I made five predictions. I was completely wrong about prediction #1 but was partially right about prediction #4: The Titans did draft Johnson … but in the first round, not the second.

Coach Jeff Fisher is happy with the pick:

“We are going to plug him in whenever and wherever we can because we know he is a playmaker,’’ Coach Jeff Fisher said. “He has world-class, difference-making speed, which is what we need in the offense.’’

It’s become obvious to me that NFL general managers know a lot of things that fans and the media don’t know, and that their criteria for drafting players is different than what we have in mind. Donnie Avery was the first receiver drafted today. Who? Donnie Avery is now a St. Louis Ram. Devin Thomas was chosen two picks after Avery by the Washington Redskins, who also drafted receiver Malcolm Kelly later in the second round.

The Pittsburgh Steelers broke my heart twice today. Not only did they draft my favorite player in the draft, running back Rashard Mendenhall, one pick before Chris Johnson, they drafted receiver Limas Sweed one pick before the Titans in the second round. I’ll have my eye on the Steelers as I’m a fan of both Mendenhall and Sweed.

I imagine that the Denver Broncos’ decision to draft receiver Eddie Royal at pick #42 affected the Titans plans. I’m also shocked that Jordy Nelson was drafted at #36 by the Packers. I look forward to watching him play.

Ten receivers were selected in the second round. The Titans did not select any of them. They chose defensive end Jason Jones from Eastern Michigan. I’ve never heard of the guy, but that doesn’t mean anything. Tennessee needed depth at defensive end after losing Antwan Odom and Travis LaBoy. The Titans believe they have a good player, so I wish him the best.

There are still some “change of pace” wide receivers available for the Titans, including Mario Manningham, Early
Doucet, Andre Caldwell and Earl Bennett.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhUhLtAC_Ok

Welcome to Tennessee,  Chris. You are a player I thought the Titans had to draft this year.

I’ll be a Rashard Mendenhall fan regardless of where he plays. If he stays healthy, I think he’ll be one of the all-time greats. He’s that good.

How does this trade affect the Titans chances of drafting Limas Sweed, my preferred first round choice?

With the acquisition of Jones, the odds of the Cowboys picking a wide receiver with one of its two first round draft picks increased to 50 percent. I don’t think Dallas would have made this trade if he didn’t feel that, due to recent developments in the Las Vegas strip club shooting case, there is a good chance that Pacman will be reinstated.

However, the Minnesota Vikings will not choose a wide receiver in the first round, since it traded its pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for defensive end Jared Allen. Minnesota probably wouldn’t have drafted Sweed at pick 17 after signing Bernard Berrian to a $42 million free agent contract, and after drafting receiver Dwayne Bowe last year, the Chiefs will not draft a receiver with either of its two first round picks.

One less team stands between Limas Sweed and the Tennessee Titans, but there’s a increased chance that Sweed will be a Dallas Cowboy.

I’m a big fan of Limas Sweed. He’s a fellow Longhorn, he’s big, fast and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. However, I think the Titans will be lucky to draft him, and here’s why.

Most NFL draft pundits believe the Buffalo Bills (currently at pick 11 in the first round), Philadelphia Eagles (19), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20), Washington Redskins (21), Dallas (22) and Tennessee Titans (24) need help at wide receiver. Throw the Pittsburgh Steelers (23) in this mix because $102 million quarterback Ben Roethlisberger wants a big young target at wide receiver.

The team to watch in the first round receiver sweepstakes is Buffalo. Let’s assume they intend to draft a receiver. How high is Sweed on the Bills draft board? Would they prefer to have Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas? I’d say there’s no more than a 20 percent chance the Bills draft Sweed at number 11 unless they trade down a few spots.

Next is the Philadelphia Eagles. I’d say their chances of drafting Sweed are 30 percent, because they have an urgent need for a cornerback and either Kelly or Thomas should still be available.

The Redskins chances of drafting a receiver are 40 percent. The question is whether Washington wants another “Smurf” or a taller player to compliment short receivers Antwaan Randle-El and Santana Moss.

Next are the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas wants a cornerback (Pacman Jones, anyone?) but I believe Jerry Jones is going to draft either a running back or a wide receiver. Jones’ choice may come down to the answer to this question: is my greatest need a number two running back to share carries with Marion Barber or to groom a young receiver behind the aging Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn?

I have a sinking feeling Limas Sweed will play the early part of his career in the NFC East.

But let’s say the Eagles and Redskins pass on Sweed, and Jerry Jones picks fellow Arkansas Razorback Felix Jones. I’d guess that Jon Gruden Tampa Bay would prefer a smaller receiver like DeSean Jackson or Thomas for the Buccaneers offense. If Pittsburgh ignores Roethlisberger’s wishes, the Titans will have their man.

Here are my predictions:

1. If Limas Sweed is available at pick 24 the Titans will draft him. Rest assured that Vince Young’s voice will be heard.

2. If Sweed, Kelly, Thomas and Jackson are gone before the Titans pick at 24, Tennessee will draft a defensive lineman.

3. The Titans will not draft receiver James Hardy. Pacman Jones, anyone?

4. If the Titans don’t draft a receiver in the first round, they will draft a very fast running back (Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles are the players I have in mind) in the second round.

5. If the Titans draft a receiver in the first round and either Johnson or Charles in the second round, the Titans will go 12-4 in 2008.

You read it here first.

Right now, “fair market value” for Jones is too high for the Cowboys. Tennessee wants a fourth-round draft pick and an additional draft pick in 2009.

The Cowboys have themselves to blame. They are the only NFL team that has publicly expressed the desire for Pacman’s services.

Pacman’s well-publicized visit to Dallas last week did not help his or the Cowboys’ bargaining position. Jones only wants to play for Dallas.

If another team shows interest in Pacman, Dallas might be forece to offer a higher draft choice and/or a quality player to Tennessee.

The Dallas Cowboys needs to understand a fundamental fact: Adam “Pacman” Jones is still a Tennessee Titan. He was the sixth pick in the 2005 NFL draft.

There is still a possibility, albeit remote, that Pacman will play for the Titans in 2008 after NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell lifts the suspension. In fact, Coach Fisher has left the door open for Pacman ever so slightly.

Dallas, if you want Pacman’s services, be prepared to compensate the Titans management as they wish to be compensated.

“We’ve given them permission to look for a new home and whatever happens after that happens,” Fisher told The Tennessean. “He’s entitled to his opinion. I know he has enjoyed the time that he has spent here on the football field. But because of his choices and such off the field, he’s created a situation where he’s going to have to look elsewhere.” (source)

Fisher’s statement comes in the wake of today’s news that the Dallas Cowboys are willing to offer a player in addition to a seventh-round draft pick for Pacman.

I have no problem with the Titans cutting ties with Jones. What’s problematic is that Tennessee selected Jones with the sixth pick in the 2005 draft and are faced with accepting a seventh-round draft pick for Jones’ services. I didn’t like the Titans decision to draft Jones. Letting him go for a seventh-round pick reflects poorly on Tennessee’s front office.

Perhaps this could work out more equitably for the Titans, depending on the player being offered by the Cowboys. How about one of the many good, young linebackers or defensive ends on Dallas’ roster?

Even so, I like the approach Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt is taking. He’s not overpaying for marginal talent. In a weak free agent pool, Bernard Berrian signed a $42 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings and Donte Stallworth signed for $35 million with the Cleveland Browns. It’s better for the Titans front office to take a conservative approach in signing talent and avoid the salary cap mess it faced after the 2004 season.

Given Reinfeldt’s approach to free agency, which is 180 degrees opposite the approach taken by the free-spending Browns, it looks as if Tennessee might have to draft a receiver in the first round. Although I’ve argued against it, this might be the only way the Titans can get a franchise player at that position this season.

Coach Jeff Fisher, when recently asked about the type of receiver he prefers, said “the priority is fast.” However, if you look at many of the prominent receivers the Titans have had over the past 5 years, the team also likes them “tall” (6′2″ and up, for our purposes). And which 1^st round prospects are both tall and fast? Malcolm Kelly and Limas Sweed.

Today, at the University of Texas’ Pro Timing Day, Sweed ran a 4.40 40-yard dash. If Sweed is on the board at pick 24, the Titans should pick him, cross their collective fingers and hope that he is this year’s Dwayne Bowe.

If the Titans draft a defensive player in the first round, management might consider picking someone like Jordy Nelson from Kansas State (6′3″), who I think will be a good NFL player. 

If you’re a fan of The Game, you’re a little sad this week. You know this day had to come. As Favre said today, all good things must come to an end. But after Green Bay lost to the Giants in the NFC Championship game, you knew Brett would be back one more season.

But it wasn’t meant to be. The man is tired.

I listened to his press conference today (available here). Below are a few quotes I found interesting (courtesy Green Bay Press-Gazette):

About God:

God has blessed me with so many great things. Ability, wonderful family. And as I was flying up here today I thought about so many different things and how I wanted to say some of the things that I felt like I need to say, but he gave me an opportunity to use my abilities, and I seized that opportunity … I thank him for that.

About stress:

But this year, and this is not the first year but it really to me and Deanna was more noticeable, the stress part of it. It’s demanding. It always has been, but I think as I’ve gotten older I’m much more aware of that. I’m much more aware of how hard it is to win in this league and to play at a high level. I’m not up to the challenge anymore. I can play, but I’m not up to the challenge. You can’t just show up and play for three hours on Sunday. If you could, there’d be a lot more people doing it and they’d be doing it for a lot longer.

An eye-opening statement about the No Fun League:

… after numerous games I would come home and after a couple of hours I had the computer out and I was watching film of the upcoming opponent instead of enjoying the win we just had. At some point, you’ve got to relax and enjoy and I found myself not enjoying it as much. It’s fun to win but you’ve got to enjoy it and relax a little bit. That more than anything was taking its toll on me.

Another eye-opener … and I believe him 100 percent:

… I can recite almost every play I’ve ever ran, called, think about near every game I’ve played in, and that’s going back to high school.

About what it’s like for famous people who die:

… I was watching at home last night, I actually broke down and watched some of the footage. How could you not? I realize what it’s like to die. As I’m watching TV last night, I said, ‘This is what it’s like when you die.’ They’re honoring me and saying all these things and showing all these games.

About how hard it is being Brett Favre:

I had so many people saying, ‘You look like you had a lot of fun out there this year,’ and I did. But what they don’t see, that’s three hours during the course of a week and I’m no different than most people. I can act the part and I know I expect a lot out of myself and certain things are expected of me within this organization and I tried to live up to those all the time. And Brett Favre got hard to live up to. And I found myself during games at times, tough situation, people always kind of made this joke or other guys on the team, even Mike at times would turn to me and say, ‘All right Brett. This is where you’re at your best. Pull us out.’ I’m thinking, ‘Uh! … ‘ Now I wouldn’t do that, but I’m thinking that. I’m thinking, ‘Boy it sure would be nice to be up about 14 right now.’ It’s just hard. It got hard. I did it, but it got hard.

And finally, Brett Favre on why we love Brett Favre:

Well, I think, I’m probably the wrong person to ask that. But if I had to guess I would say, and I hear this from time to time, he’s like one of us. Well, I am. I just play professional football.

I’ll consider sharing a story about how Brett Favre influenced a significant personal decision.

Enjoy your retirement, Mr. Favre. After 275 consecutive starts in the National Football League, you’ve earned it.
—
Some of you old-timers may remember the guy who briefly stirred the hopes of Packer Nation before Favre took over. Here’s a great article about the Majik Man.